Demystifying the illusion of Zimbabwe’s ‘fastest-growing’ economy

Numbers do not lie, it is often said — but when twisted, they certainly can.

Zimbabwe has been touted as the fastest-growing economy in southern Africa, with headlines proudly proclaiming GDP growth rates of 6 percent and beyond.

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On paper, this makes the country look like a regional star.

South Africa struggles with growth barely scraping 1–2 percent.

Yet anyone living in Zimbabwe knows the disconnect: streets remain in disrepair, jobs are scarce, and wages stagnant.

How then can an economy so visibly struggling be “growing faster than its neighbors”?

The answer is simple — and it exposes the illusion behind these figures: it’s called the base effect.

Zimbabwe’s economy collapsed over decades.

From the late 1990s through the 2000s, mismanagement, hyperinflation, and chaotic land reform shrank the economy to a shadow of its former self.

In 2008 alone, GDP contracted by over 18 percent.

By 2009, the economy was barely half its pre-crisis size.

When you start from such a low base, even modest absolute gains look enormous in percentage terms.

That is why a $1 billion increase in GDP can register as 5 or 6 percent growth.

It is not a miracle.

It is mathematics.

Recent statistics make this illusion painfully clear.

In 2024, Zimbabwe’s GDP grew by just $1.3 billion, producing a modest 2.9 percent growth.

Forecasts for 2025 suggest an increase of roughly $2.7 billion, translating into a headline growth rate of 6 percent, with the World Bank projecting 6.6 percent.

In absolute terms, these are small additions to an economy valued at around $46 billion, yet the percentages make it look enormous.

To put it in perspective, imagine someone earning $50 a month who receives a paltry $25 increment.

In absolute terms, it is tiny, but expressed as a percentage, it looks like a 50 percent pay rise — far more impressive than the actual addition.

The same principle applies to Zimbabwe: small increases in a small economy produce headline-grabbing percentages, creating the false impression of a boom while real expansion remains limited.

The contrast with South Africa underscores the point.

South Africa’s GDP is roughly $460 billion, almost ten times the size of Zimbabwe’s.

Even if South Africa added $6 billion in a single year — more than twice what Zimbabwe expects in 2025 — its growth rate would barely register at 1.3 percent.

It is the same as someone earning US$1,000 a month receiving a US$100 salary increase — which translates to a 10 percent increase.

On paper, the worker earning US$50 who received an increase of only US$25 — a 50 percent salary increase — appears to have gained far more than the one who earned US$1,000 and received a US$100 increase, which is 10 percent.

But in reality, would it make any sense for the worker who received just US$25 to boast that they gained more than the one who received US$100?

Yet that is exactly what the Zimbabwean government is doing by bragging that our economy is the fastest-growing in the region, creating the misleading impression that it is growing faster — or performing better — than much larger economies such as South Africa’s.

A small economy magnifies modest gains; a large economy dilutes massive ones.

Percentages alone, without context, create a misleading story.

The state then misleads the nation into believing Zimbabwe’s economy is outpacing South Africa’s, even though Zimbabwe would have grown by only $2 billion while South Africa added $6 billion.

So which economy is truly growing bigger?

The base effect also explains Zimbabwe’s volatile growth.

After reporting 6.1 percent in 2022 and 5.3 percent in 2023, the economy slowed to 1.7 percent in 2024 before bouncing back to roughly 6 percent in 2025.

This is not the story of a booming economy; it is the story of a small, vulnerable, and volatile economy recovering from collapse.

Even modest gains can produce large swings, and tiny losses can appear catastrophic.

Sustaining high growth is difficult once the initial rebound fades.

Politicians and state media tout these numbers as proof of competence, but they tell you nothing about ordinary citizens’ lives — nothing about jobs, wages, infrastructure, or living standards.

Farmers struggle to access affordable inputs, traders face erratic electricity and water supply, and workers see wages that barely cover inflation.

Streets crumble under potholes and dust, yet the government can announce a “growing economy.”

The arithmetic behind the base effect is simple.

Small economies can appear to “grow fast” with modest absolute gains, while large economies show tiny percentage growth despite much larger gains.

This explains the swings in Zimbabwe’s reported growth — it is recovery from collapse, not stable expansion.

The lesson is clear: do not be fooled by headline growth figures.

Look beyond the percentages and ask the hard questions.

Are people employed?

Are wages rising?

Are services reliable?

Until growth translates into jobs, infrastructure, and improved living standards, the “fastest-growing economy” label remains hollow — numbers for newspapers, not for the people.

Zimbabwe’s story is a cautionary tale.

Percentages are seductive; they promise progress without substance.

True economic growth is measured not in abstract statistics, but in the daily lives of citizens.

Until these numbers begin to reflect reality — until roads are fixed, jobs are created, and wages rise — the narrative of a “fastest-growing economy” will remain exactly that: a narrative, not a fact.